The 2023 extreme coastal El Niño: Atmospheric and air-sea coupling mechanisms.

In the boreal spring of 2023, an extreme coastal El Niño struck the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador, causing devastating rainfalls, flooding, and record dengue outbreaks. Observations and ocean model experiments reveal that northerly alongshore winds and westerly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, initially associated with a record-strong Madden-Julian Oscillation and cyclonic disturbance off Peru in March, drove the coastal warming through suppressed coastal upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves. Atmospheric model simulations indicate that the coastal warming in turn favors the observed wind anomalies over the far eastern tropical Pacific by triggering atmospheric deep convection. This implies a positive feedback between the coastal warming and the winds, which further amplifies the coastal warming. In May, the seasonal background cooling precludes deep convection and the coastal Bjerknes feedback, leading to the weakening of the coastal El Niño. This coastal El Niño is rare but predictable at 1 month lead, which is useful to protect lives and properties.

Contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to persistent La Niña-like conditions in the early 21st century.

The discrepancy between the observed lack of surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and climate model projections of an El Niño-like warming pattern confronts the climate research community. While anthropogenic aerosols have been suggested as a cause, the prolonged cooling trend over the equatorial Pacific appears in conflict with Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reduction since the 1980s. Here, using CESM, we show that the superposition of fast and slow responses to aerosol emission change-an increase followed by a decrease-can sustain the La Niña-like condition for a longer time than expected. The rapid adjustment of Hadley Cell to aerosol reduction triggers joint feedback between low clouds, wind, evaporation, and sea surface temperature in the Southeast Pacific, leading to a wedge-shaped cooling that extends to the central equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, the northern subtropical cell gradually intensifies, resulting in equatorial subsurface cooling that lasts for decades.

Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling.

Since the beginning of the satellite era, Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled, despite global warming. While observed Southern Ocean cooling has previously been reported to have minimal impact on the tropical Pacific, the efficiency of this teleconnection has recently shown to be mediated by subtropical cloud feedbacks that are highly model-dependent. Here, we conduct a coupled model intercomparison of paired ensemble simulations under historical radiative forcing: one with freely evolving SSTs and the other with Southern Ocean SST anomalies constrained to follow observations. We reveal a global impact of observed Southern Ocean cooling in the model with stronger (and more realistic) cloud feedbacks, including Antarctic sea-ice expansion, southeastern tropical Pacific cooling, northward-shifted Hadley circulation, Aleutian low weakening, and North Pacific warming. Our results therefore suggest that observed Southern Ocean SST decrease might have contributed to cooler conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific in recent decades.

Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming.

The tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) has experienced enhanced surface warming relative to the tropical mean during the past century, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we use single-forcing, large-ensemble coupled model simulations to demonstrate that changes of biomass burning (BMB) aerosols have played a critical role in this TIO relative warming. Although the BMB aerosol changes have little effect on global mean temperatures due to regional cancellation, they significantly influence the pattern of warming over the tropical oceans. The reduction of BMB aerosols over the Indian subcontinent induces a TIO warming, while the increase of BMB aerosols over South America and Africa causes a cooling of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, respectively. The resultant TIO relative warming leads to prominent global climate changes, including a westward expanded Indo-Pacific warm pool, a fresher TIO due to enhanced rainfall, and an intensified North Atlantic jet stream affecting European hydroclimate.

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific.

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America.

Recently, there has been substantial effort to understand the fundamental characteristics of warm ocean temperature extremes-known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, MHW research has primarily focused on the surface signature of these events. While surface MHWs (SMHW) can have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems, extreme warming along the seafloor can also have significant biological outcomes. In this study, we use a high-resolution (~8 km) ocean reanalysis to broadly assess bottom marine heatwaves (BMHW) along the continental shelves of North America. We find that BMHW intensity and duration varies strongly with bottom depth, with typical intensities ranging from ~0.5 °C-3 °C. Further, BMHWs can be more intense and persist longer than SMHWs. While BMHWs and SMHWs often co-occur, BMHWs can also exist without a SMHW. Deeper regions in which the mixed layer does not typically reach the seafloor exhibit less synchronicity between BMHWs and SMHWs.

Zonal mean and shift modes of historical climate response to evolving aerosol distribution.

Anthropogenic aerosols are effective radiative forcing agents that perturb the Earth's climate. Major emission sources shifted from the western to eastern hemisphere around the 1980s. An ensemble of single-forcing simulations with an Earth System Model reveals two stages of aerosol-induced climate change in response to the global aerosol increase for 1940-1980 and the zonal shift of aerosol forcing for 1980-2020, respectively. Here, using idealized experiments with hierarchical models, we show that the aerosol increase and shift modes of aerosol-forced climate change are dynamically distinct, governed by the inter-hemispheric energy transport and basin-wide ocean-atmosphere interactions, respectively. The aerosol increase mode dominates in the motionless slab ocean model but is damped by ocean dynamics. Free of zonal-mean energy perturbation, characterized by an anomalous North Atlantic warming and North Pacific cooling, the zonal shift mode is amplified by interactive ocean dynamics through Bjerknes feedback. Both modes contribute to a La Niña-like pattern over the equatorial Pacific. We suggest that a global perspective that accommodates the evolving geographical distribution of aerosol emissions is vital for understanding the aerosol-forced historical climate change.

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate.

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K-1 globally, 4-5% K-1 over land and 2-4% K-1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming.

Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily over the past century, but the overall pattern contains extensive and often uncertain spatial variations, with potentially important effects on regional precipitation. Observations suggest a slowdown of the zonal atmospheric overturning circulation above the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Walker circulation) over the twentieth century. Although this change has been attributed to a muted hydrological cycle forced by global warming, the effect of SST warming patterns has not been explored and quantified. Here we perform experiments using an atmospheric model, and find that SST warming patterns are the main cause of the weakened Walker circulation over the past six decades (1950-2009). The SST trend reconstructed from bucket-sampled SST and night-time marine surface air temperature features a reduced zonal gradient in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, a change consistent with subsurface temperature observations. Model experiments with this trend pattern robustly simulate the observed changes, including the Walker circulation slowdown and the eastward shift of atmospheric convection from the Indonesian maritime continent to the central tropical Pacific. Our results cannot establish whether the observed changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic global warming, but they do show that the observed slowdown in the Walker circulation is presumably driven by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes.

Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms.

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.